Recent shifts in U.S. trade and foreign aid policies have placed Lesotho—a small, landlocked nation in southern Africa—under significant threat. The introduction of a 10% U.S. tariff on Lesotho’s exports, combined with the termination of USAID funding, could have devastating consequences for both its economy and public health systems.
A Shrinking Textile Sector Under Pressure
Lesotho has long relied on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—a Clinton-era initiative granting duty-free access to U.S. markets. Major U.S. brands like Gap and Levi Strauss once relied on Lesotho’s textile factories, which employed 50,000 workers at their peak in the mid-2000s—primarily Basotho women. Even Trump-branded golf shirts were made in the country.
Today, that number has dropped to just 12,000 textile jobs, following years of decline exacerbated by COVID-19 and other global factors. Lesotho currently exports roughly $240 million in goods to the U.S. annually, but imports less than $3 million, making the country highly vulnerable to tariff-driven imbalances.
Experts, including Charles Fogelman of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, warn that correcting this imbalance via higher tariffs is impractical. Lesotho cannot significantly increase imports from the U.S., so the only likely path to “balance” would be for Lesotho to cut up to 90% of its exports, which would collapse its textile industry and cost thousands of jobs.
USAID Cuts Threaten HIV/AIDS Progress
Lesotho also faces severe public health challenges. The country has the second-highest HIV prevalence globally, with vital support coming from USAID-funded programs. Through sustained assistance, Lesotho recently reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goal: 90% diagnosed, 90% receiving treatment, and 90% achieving viral suppression. This achievement led to a 75% drop in AIDS-related deaths and an 85% reduction in new HIV cases since 2005.
However, with USAID funding now cut, public health agencies are beginning to shut down, and patients are losing access to essential antiretroviral treatments. Maintaining the 90-90-90 benchmark will likely become impossible unless another international donor steps in immediately.
Rising Concerns and Diplomatic Strain
While Lesotho’s government publicly downplays the situation, tensions are growing behind closed doors. Meetings between U.S. embassy staff in Maseru and Lesotho officials are reportedly filled with anxiety. President Trump’s dismissive comment that “nobody has ever heard of Lesotho” only worsened the tone of bilateral relations.
AGOA has faced threats before, but Lesotho had prepared contingency plans, including diversifying export targets to southern Africa and Europe. Still, the sudden collapse of healthcare funding poses an urgent and potentially deadly crisis.
Geopolitical Shifts on the Horizon
Looking ahead, Fogelman predicts that Lesotho—and similarly affected African nations—may turn to China, which has rapidly expanded its influence across the continent. Ironically, a U.S. trade policy aimed at curbing China’s global rise may, in fact, accelerate its expansion in Africa.
Source: University of Illinois News Bureau, April 11, 2025
