The African textile and apparel sector is bracing for major losses after the Trump administration allowed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to expire on September 30. The trade scheme, introduced in 2000, had provided 32 African nations tariff-free access to the U.S. market, including special provisions for apparel in 22 countries.
Apparel Sector Hit Hardest
According to the International Trade Center (ITC), the end of AGOA will have its greatest impact on value-added industries such as apparel and textiles. Exports in this sector are projected to fall by 9.7% by 2029, amounting to $138 million in lost trade, the sharpest decline of any category.
Across all AGOA beneficiaries, the combined effect of the scheme’s expiry and tariffs introduced in 2025 is expected to cut projected exports by $189 million, or nearly 9%.
The apparel industry faces the most punishing tariff increases: AGOA’s lapse adds 14 percentage points, on top of the 13-point hike from 2025 measures, creating an effective duty increase of 27 percentage points.
Jobs at Risk
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director of the ITC, warned of severe consequences for African exporters and workers.
“Access to key markets is becoming more difficult, and African countries—especially the least developed—are feeling the strain,” she said.
Lesotho is among the most vulnerable. Nearly 60% of its apparel exports, worth more than $230 million annually, go to the U.S. Duty-free access under AGOA had allowed its textile sector to employ 40,000 workers, but those exports now face tariffs of up to 15%. The result, industry observers say, has been cancelled orders and mounting job losses.
Uneven Impact
While apparel and textiles are the hardest hit, other sectors such as leather (-3.3%), processed foods (-1.6%), and vehicles (-1.3%) are also expected to see declines. By contrast, resource-driven economies such as Nigeria, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo face minimal disruption, as their exports of crude oil and minerals already benefit from low tariffs.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned that the expiry of AGOA threatens Africa’s broader industrialisation goals, particularly efforts to diversify away from raw commodities.
Future Uncertainty
AGOA’s third-country fabric allowance—seen as a cornerstone of competitiveness for nations like Kenya, Madagascar, and Eswatini—is also gone. Without new trade frameworks, African manufacturers risk losing ground to Asian competitors at a critical moment for global supply chains.
Industry leaders are now urging urgent negotiations for alternative arrangements. Without them, Africa’s most labor-intensive export industries could face a long-term decline in competitiveness and employment.
