As the 25-year-old African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its September 2025 expiration, experts across the continent are urging a strategic reassessment of Africa’s trade policies. The act, which has offered duty-free access to the U.S. market for goods from eligible sub-Saharan African countries, is now under review in the U.S.
Congress, raising questions about its future and potential geopolitical strings attached.
Antony Mwangi, former CEO of the Kenya Association of Manufacturers, noted that the U.S.’s “America First” approach is casting a shadow over the agreement’s renewal. “With the U.S. Congress deliberating an extension for another 16 years, the future of this key trade pact hangs in the balance. There’s growing concern that it may be replaced by bilateral agreements with more reciprocal—and less favorable—terms for African nations,” he warned.
AGOA’s Uncertain Future Raises Strategic Concerns for Africa
Felistus Kandia, lead trade researcher at Nairobi-based Mashariki Research and Policy Center, echoed this sentiment. She highlighted the U.S.’s increasing preference for bilateral deals that serve its strategic interests, suggesting that African nations must prepare to negotiate alternative trade frameworks. “Even if AGOA is renewed, access could become conditional, influenced by political alignment and human rights records,” Kandia said.
This concern is not unfounded. In recent years, the U.S. has suspended AGOA benefits for countries like Ethiopia, Mali, Guinea, and Uganda over human rights issues. South Africa’s position on global geopolitical matters, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, has also drawn scrutiny that may affect its eligibility.
Still, some see the uncertainty as a chance for Africa to redefine its economic trajectory. Mwangi said the current situation opens doors for African countries to reduce their reliance on raw material exports and develop value-added industries through investment in infrastructure like industrial parks and special economic zones.
Kandia urged policymakers to prioritize regional integration through mechanisms like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and to diversify trade partnerships beyond the U.S., tapping into growing markets such as China, the EU, and Southeast Asia.
As the AGOA deadline nears, Africa’s next moves could determine whether the end of an era becomes a turning point toward self-driven economic growth.
