Ethiopia will be suspended from the United States’ tariff-free African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) scheme beginning January 1, following a determination by Joe Biden that the country committed “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.”
The move marks a further deterioration in relations between Washington and Addis Ababa amid Ethiopia’s ongoing conflict in the Tigray region, which began in November 2020 and has reportedly resulted in tens of thousands of deaths.
In a statement to Congress, President Biden said Ethiopia’s human rights record disqualified it from continued participation in AGOA. The decision follows a September 17 executive order authorizing sanctions against individuals linked to violence in northern Ethiopia.
Economic Impact on Textile Sector
AGOA provides eligible African countries with tariff-free access to the US market, particularly benefiting export-oriented manufacturing sectors. Ethiopia is estimated to receive approximately $100 million annually in export revenue under the scheme.
According to Vanda Felbab-Brown, co-director of the African Security Initiative at Brookings, AGOA-related exports directly support around 100,000 jobs in Ethiopia, most of them held by women working in textile and apparel factories in the country’s southern industrial parks.
The textile sector has been one of Ethiopia’s flagship industrialization pillars, attracting foreign investment from Asia and Europe in recent years.
Mixed Views on Trade Impact
Despite concerns over employment and export revenues, some analysts suggest the macroeconomic impact may be limited.
Charlie Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, noted that Ethiopia’s overall exports remain relatively modest, and only a small percentage is directed to the United States.
Read more: Ethiopia’s Textile Sector Faces Crisis Amid Calls for Minimum Wage Reform and Policy Overhaul
According to available figures, Ethiopia exported roughly $3 billion in goods in 2020, with about 7% of exports going to the US in 2018/19. Robertson estimates the suspension may affect less than $200 million in exports and primarily removes preferential tariff access rather than eliminating market entry altogether.
Guinea and Mali Also Suspended
Ethiopia is not alone in losing AGOA eligibility. Guinea and Mali will also be suspended following military coups that disrupted constitutional governance.
US Trade Representative Katherine Tai stated that the United States remains “deeply concerned by the unconstitutional change in governments” in both countries.
Guinea’s suspension follows the September overthrow of President Alpha Condé by a military junta, while Mali faces disqualification after experiencing its second coup within a year.
Under AGOA rules, participating countries must demonstrate progress toward rule of law, political pluralism, worker rights, and the protection of internationally recognized human rights.
The suspension of these three nations signals Washington’s intention to link trade preferences more closely to governance and human rights benchmarks, even as it raises concerns about the economic consequences for affected export sectors and workers.
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